Latest Census Bureau Population Estimates for the U.P.

In May 2026, the Census Bureau released its annual population estimates for U.S. counties. These estimates use current birth, death, and migration data to calculate population change since the last (2020) census. This article examines these data for the U.P. and considers why some counties have been able to overcome their natural population decline (i.e. they have more deaths than births) by attracting migrants and some of the challenges posed by population increases.

Population Change 2020-25 U.P. Counties

Between 2020 and 2025, the U.P. population increased by 0.3 percent, which is slightly below the state figure of 0.5 (Table 1). Seven counties are estimated to have lost population, while eight gained, although the increases for Baraga (+26) and Ontonagon (+24) are minimal. Migration is responsible for most of these gains, since all U.P. counties except Houghton have more deaths than births. Indeed, between 2020 and 2024, the region’s number of deaths exceeded the number of births by over 6,000 (12,102 births versus 18,737 deaths). Marquette, Houghton and Mackinac have the largest absolute population increases. Marquette and Houghton counties serve as regional service centers for the central U.P. and Keweenaw Peninsula respectively and have diverse service-based economies. In contrast, Mackinac has a relatively small population (approximately 11,000) and its growth appears related to an influx of retirees given its high median age of 53 years, up from 49 in 2010. Keweenaw county has the highest percentage population increase (6.2%), but the actual gain is a relatively modest 127. Its growth is driven by an influx of well-educated migrants; between 2010 and 2024 the population 18 years and older whose highest degree was a bachelor’s, master’s, or professional or doctorate degree jumped from 22.0 percent to 41.2 percent, with most of that increase occurring after 2017. Although Iron county’s population is estimated to have increased by 1.1 percent, the increase of just 127 persons is minimal compared with the long-term loss of nearly 2,500 residents since 1976.

Among counties estimated to have lost population, Chippewa and Menominee experienced the largest declines in percentage and absolute terms. In each case the decline is part of a long-term trend, Chippewa’s population peaked in 2012 at 39,006, by 2025 it had dropped by nearly 3,000 to 36,081. Menominee’s population decline began earlier in 1979 starting at 26,600, by 2025 it had dropped to 22,941. Alger county experienced the largest percentage decline (-2.3%) with its population peaking at 9,945 in 1999. Delta county’s population fall is also part of a long-term pattern; its population peaked at 39,826 in 1982 and since then, with minor fluctuations, it has dropped by over 3,000 to 36,582 in 2025.

Characteristics of Population Growth Counties 

The Upper Peninsula is an isolated rural area that abounds in natural beauty and amenities. Yet not all places within it are created equal in terms of attractiveness for newcomers. Wealthy retirees, for example, are likely to consider access to health care and eldercare facilities as important considerations along with cultural amenities such as entertainment venues and restaurants. Counties with large population centers are better able to provide these types of services than counties with small service center populations. This is exemplified by the difference between Luce and Marquette County. Luce’s major population center is Newberry; its population has been halved from approximately 2,800 in 1950 to 1,446 in 2020. Less people means a smaller market to support local businesses.  In contrast, during the same period the city of Marquette’s population has risen from about 17,000 in 1950 to nearly 21,000 in 2020, while the surrounding township’s population increased from 1,280 to over 4,000 during the same period. 

Challenges Posed by Changing Population Structure

According to the USDA’s Economic Research Service, one of the challenges for many rural areas is a shrinking labor force due to populations becoming more concentrated in younger and older age groups that tend to require more economic support and caregiving. Dependency ratios compare the population at younger and older ages to the working age population (15-64 years). The higher the ratio the more dependent the population is upon working age people. The majority of U.P. counties have a dependency ratio higher than the state figure of 57.6, with Houghton having the lowest figure and Keweenaw the highest (Table 2). More significantly since 2020 all counties, except Houghton, have significantly increased their dependency ratio above the state’s figure. This reflects the “aging in place” of the region’s baby boomer population and retiree migration. Gogebic, Iron, Keweenaw, Mackinac, Ontonagon and Schoolcraft all have 30 percent or more of their population over the age of 65. Finding workers to meet the service needs of retirees is exacerbated by the region’s relatively low labor force participation rate. Alger, Baraga, Iron, Keweenaw, Luce, and Ontonagon Counties, all have less than 50 percent of the civilian working-age population (ages 16 and older) either employed or actively looking for work, compared with the statewide figure of 61.3. Marquette (59.5) and Houghton (57.4) have the highest rates.

At the same time as the region’s dependent population is increasing, housing costs have sharply increased for most counties since 2020 (Table 3). According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index® (FHFA HPI®) that measures changes in single-family home values, Marquette and Houghton counties have the highest home values and have experienced the largest increases in values since 2020. Not surprisingly, they are also the two counties with the largest population increases. Single home values have also significantly increased in counties experiencing long term population decline e.g. Alger, Gogebic and Iron.  Finding workers to provide services to the region’s increasingly dependent population will be particularly challenging given the well documented increase in single home values and longer commutes are a likely outcome. For example, according to realtor.com, the median listing price for the 49855-zip code (Marquette) was $539,000 in June 2026, but fifteen miles west in Ishpeming the equivalent figure was $240,000.

Conclusions

Migration is critical for the region’s population growth, but not all areas within the U.P. are equally attractive for migrants. Marquette and Houghton counties are the principal beneficiaries of newcomer migration, since they contain population centers that provide a diverse array of service functions. A challenge for the entire region will be finding sufficient workers to care for an increasingly aged population, given the area’s relatively low labor force participation rate, and high housing costs.